NLCS Will Come Down to Cole Hamels

Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies on 10/15/2009 06:09 am by Brian Berg

After an exhilarating Division Series victory over the Colorado Rockies, the Phillies meet the LA Dodgers in a rematch of last year’s NLCS.  And just like last year, this series will come down to one person more than any other: Cole Hamels.

Will the Phillies get this version of Cole Hamels? If they do, they should earn a repeat trip to the Fall Classic

Will the Phillies get this version of Cole Hamels? If they do, they should earn a repeat trip to the Fall Classic

Last season, prior to winning the World Series MVP, Cole Hamels also won the MVP of the National League Championship Series.  And for good reason.  Hamels pitched two of the five games in the series - including the clincher - going 2-0 with just three earned runs against in 14 innings.  He set the tone for the series in the opener and was even better in closing out the series.

Cole Hamels has not been the same this year.  No one will debate that.  He has been maddeningly inconsistent all season, from his slow start of the season to his abbreviated outing in game 2 of the NLDS.  Sure, there were some great outings in between, but there were also some real clunkers.  One of those great outings just happened to come in LA against the very same Dodgers he’ll be facing Thursday night, where he went the distance, giving up no runs in the process.

Even with Cole’s inconsistency, on the surface it would seem that the addition of Cliff Lee has made this year’s Phillies team equal to last year’s edition, and more than capable of defeating the Dodgers for a second straight year.  However, it’s not that simple.  A major strength of last year’s team - the bullpen - is anything but this year (the successes against Colorado notwithstanding).  And, to make matters worse, the Dodgers bullpen is much improved.  All other things being equal, the Dodgers really do have the advantage in this series.

That is unless Cole Hamels pitches like the MVP edition of last year.  If that is the case, the Phillies then have two bonafide aces pitching at least four games of the seven game series.  Hamels will pitch game one of the series, and has a chance to set the tone just like he did exactly one year ago.  When the Phillies return home for game three, they will hand the ball to Cliff Lee, who has been fantastic thus far this postseason (much like Hamels was last season).  Then Hamels will immediately follow with a game four start, and Lee will follow with his second start in game six when the series shifts back to LA.  If both pitchers pitch like they’ve proven they’re capable of, that clearly tips the scales in favor of the Phillies.

Granted, there are countless things that could happen which will make Cole Hamels a rather insignificant figure in this series.  For example, maybe Cliff Lee falls into his September form, or the bullpen proves why it’s was such a concern entering the playoffs.  Or maybe the Phils’ offense falls into one of its infamous slumps.  It’s even possible that the Dodgers’ starting pitching is so outgunned that the Phillies cruise, or the never-say-die Phillies treat the formidable Dodgers bullpen like they treated the Rockies’ ‘pen.  Point is, anything can happen in a playoff series, and it can be ridiculous to boil it all down to one player.  But, more than any other player, and short of something stunning taking place, this series will come down to Cole Hamels.  If he’s average or worse, the Phils might be in trouble.  However, if he regains his MVP form, the Phillies should be back in the World Series.

I have no idea how the Phils will do in the Playoffs

Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies on 10/06/2009 10:57 pm by Brian Berg

There are so many questions concerning the Philadelphia Phillies as they prepare to began the playoffs, the title says it all:  I have no idea how the Phils will do.

There are a lot of questions the Phillies have to answer if they want to do this again (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

There are a lot of questions the Phillies have to answer if they want to do this again (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Normally on the eve on the playoffs, I’d write some sort of predictive post.  After all, after watching a whole season, you’d think I would have some idea of what the team is capable of.  Normally I do, but this year is different.  The Phillies won 93 games after leading the division for most of the year.  But that division lead has been one of the few consistent features of this season.

The only other consistency of the season has been the ineffectiveness of Brad Lidge, and whoever else was chosen to close out games.  And that is question mark number one.  It is well known that the Lidge, and the Phillies, were perfect when leading after eight innings last year.  This year, between Lidge and Ryan Madson alone, they have 17 blown saves.  Teams simply do not succeed in the playoffs without  having pitchers who can close out a game.  That said, we all know how Lidge and Madson are capable of pitching.  Which ones will show up starting on Wednesday?

The next question mark stems from the closer situation.  The lack of a clear closer has created a domino effect on the rest of the bullpen.  Guys have struggled without defined roles, and guys have struggled in roles they are not accustomed to.  Manager Charlie Manuel’s job was easy last year - the eighth inning was for Madson and the ninth inning belonged to Lidge.  End of story.  Not this year.  This postseason, Manuel will have patchwork together the end of ballgames - not a promising proposition.

Making things worse in the bullpen are injuries.  Nearly every member of the bullpen has spent time on the disabled list this year.  And some key members are unavailable for at least the first round of the playoffs.  J.C. Romero, Chan Ho Park, and Jaime Moyer are all unavailable to pitch against the Rockies.  In addition to that, Scott Eyre and Brett Meyers are coming off of long lasting injuries and have had a less than ideal amount of time to prove they’re back to full strength.  Will they struggle to regain their form, or, even worse, will they get re-injured?  No one knows.

Again, these issues in the bullpen have dominoed to the starting staff.  Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will start games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, but after that, no one knows.  Manuel has said that both Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ will be available in the bullpen in those first two games.  But because it depends on what happens in the beginning of this series, we have no idea who we’ll see starting games 3 and 4.  For as strong as the staring rotation looked a month ago, that is alarming.

Lee and Hamels appear to be non-questions in comparison to the rest of the rotation, but that’s only true if the “right” Lee and Hamels show up.  The Lee that finished the season was a polar opposite of the Lee that came over at the trade deadline, with his era jumping nearly six full runs from the first five starts to next seven.  And Cole has been up and down all year.  He’s been up more than down lately, but you still don’t know.

That pretty much does it for the pitching, but pitching is not alone as a question mark.  The offense has been in a pretty big slump for most of September, and some key guys have been in horrendous slumps (Chase Utley and Shane Victorino to name a couple).  Now, the nature of this offense is to be streaky.  Anyone who’s watched the Phillies the past three or four years knows this.  And right now it’s streaking bad.  Now, there is a decent chance the lack of production from the big bats in the lineup was due to fatigue at the end of a long season - Manuel did a good job of resting those guys up the final five games of the year - but, again, you just don’t know.

So what can we count on against the Rockies?  Defense.  Experience.  Home crowds.  Unfortunately, I’m not sure what those count for or what else we can count on.  Now, all of this is not meant to be doom and gloom.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the struggles of September were simply a natural human reaction to being in first for so long.  I wouldn’t be surprised if, come Wednesday, the bats wake up, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels pitch like they’re capable of, and the Phillies advance easily.  However, I also wouldn’t be that surprised if the slump from September continues, and the red-hot Rockies come in here and make quick work of the Phils (sounds eerily familiar).

The Phillies are a good team.  A very good team - they’re probably more talented than last year’s championship edition.  But there are simply too many question marks to be confident in a repeat.  Could it happen.  Absolutely.  Even with all these questions, the Phillies managed to win a third consecutive division title, and finish within one game of the best record in the league.  And every time they’ve faced a “must-win” situation, they have come through.  But only time will tell whether this season will end in disappointment or jubilation.  But, regardless, it’s been a fun ride, and will continue to be for as long as the Phillies are playing.  Everyone should remember that.

Mix of New and Old Lead Flyers in Successful Opening Weekend

Posted in NHL, Philadelphia Flyers on 10/05/2009 01:01 am by Brian Berg

The Flyers open up their season with back to back wins on back to back nights.  The new faces were shining bright, but some familiar faces picked up where they left off last year by carrying the load.

Simon Gagne (12), Mike Richards (18), and Matt Carle celebrate a goal against Carolina (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Simon Gagne (12), Mike Richards (18), and Matt Carle celebrate a goal against Carolina (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Last season for the Flyers was a tale of two seasons.  Not so much in the sense of first half results versus second half results, but more in the way the team was perceived by the league and fans (or at least by me).  They entered last season coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals - a shock to many considering their league-worst record the prior season - and had high expectations to improve on that accomplishment and become Stanley Cup contenders.  But by the time they blew a 3-0 lead in their sixth and final game of their opening round playoff series against the eventual champion Pittsburgh Penguins, it was clear that, perhaps, the young and promising Flyers had climbed too high too fast.

The Flyers were a young team with a young, first year captain in Mike Richards.  Richards, along with many of the other young players on the team, had a very good year - many of them setting career highs in goals and points.  And, yes, the NHL is a young man’s league, but it is still easy to forget how tough it is for a team to be led by a corps of players almost all below the age of 25.  I have absolute confidence that Richards will become a great captain in this league, but last year was clearly full of growing pains in terms of leadership.

This season will have two main storylines to follow.  The first is that of the young corps of players growing into  their leadership roles (or not).  The second is whether their new additions successfully fill the voids from last year.  That’s where Ray Emery and Chris Pronger come in.

Ray Emery is a talented goalie who has had some concentration and discipline issues throughout his career.  So much so, that he spent the last season essentially exiled in Siberia (He played in Russia since no NHL team wanted to deal with him).  Feeling that he’s been “rehabilitated,” and that a fresh start and second chance are what he needed, the Flyers decided to take a chance on him.  I initially criticized the move as purely financial, and felt the goalie position was too important to go bargain hunting.  While I still think the move was mostly financial and very risky, Emery has proved (so far) to be a good pickup.  He backstopped both wins for the Flyers, and came within ten minutes of opening with two straight shutouts.  Enough said.

Chris Pronger is a defender who was obtained via trade during the summer’s entry draft.  I loved the trade then, and I love it even more now.  While Pronger didn’t do anything amazing during the first two games of the season, he is a known commodity.  He brings a shutdown defensive ability to take some pressure off of Kimmo Timonen.  He brings some nastiness to keep some of the talented forwards in the Eastern Conference from having free reign in front of the Flyers’ net.  And he brings some leadership and Stanley Cup experience to help out the current group of young leaders on the team.  And, oh yeah.  He brings a rocket of a shot from the blue line.

In winning their first two games against two quality opponents - 2-0 over Carolina and 5-2 over New Jersey - the Flyers looked like a complete team ready to compete with the best teams in the conference.  They did everything you wanted to see them do.  They scored on the power play (two goals already); they killed penalties (just one goal given up in 13 chances); they got early leads and held onto them in both games; and they got balanced scoring throughout their lineup.  But most importantly, they played with a consistent effort and intensity throughout the games.

This year is really make or break for the young nucleus of this team.  They’ve been down (2006-2007), they’ve been up (2007-2008), and they’ve been in between (2008-2009).  Richards and company should now have the experience to match their skill level with a consistent intensity they have lacked up to this point.  And, thanks to some newcomers, they have some significant help to accomplish their ultimate goal.

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