I have no idea how the Phils will do in the Playoffs

There are so many questions concerning the Philadelphia Phillies as they prepare to began the playoffs, the title says it all:  I have no idea how the Phils will do.

There are a lot of questions the Phillies have to answer if they want to do this again (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

There are a lot of questions the Phillies have to answer if they want to do this again (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Normally on the eve on the playoffs, I’d write some sort of predictive post.  After all, after watching a whole season, you’d think I would have some idea of what the team is capable of.  Normally I do, but this year is different.  The Phillies won 93 games after leading the division for most of the year.  But that division lead has been one of the few consistent features of this season.

The only other consistency of the season has been the ineffectiveness of Brad Lidge, and whoever else was chosen to close out games.  And that is question mark number one.  It is well known that the Lidge, and the Phillies, were perfect when leading after eight innings last year.  This year, between Lidge and Ryan Madson alone, they have 17 blown saves.  Teams simply do not succeed in the playoffs without  having pitchers who can close out a game.  That said, we all know how Lidge and Madson are capable of pitching.  Which ones will show up starting on Wednesday?

The next question mark stems from the closer situation.  The lack of a clear closer has created a domino effect on the rest of the bullpen.  Guys have struggled without defined roles, and guys have struggled in roles they are not accustomed to.  Manager Charlie Manuel’s job was easy last year - the eighth inning was for Madson and the ninth inning belonged to Lidge.  End of story.  Not this year.  This postseason, Manuel will have patchwork together the end of ballgames - not a promising proposition.

Making things worse in the bullpen are injuries.  Nearly every member of the bullpen has spent time on the disabled list this year.  And some key members are unavailable for at least the first round of the playoffs.  J.C. Romero, Chan Ho Park, and Jaime Moyer are all unavailable to pitch against the Rockies.  In addition to that, Scott Eyre and Brett Meyers are coming off of long lasting injuries and have had a less than ideal amount of time to prove they’re back to full strength.  Will they struggle to regain their form, or, even worse, will they get re-injured?  No one knows.

Again, these issues in the bullpen have dominoed to the starting staff.  Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will start games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, but after that, no one knows.  Manuel has said that both Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ will be available in the bullpen in those first two games.  But because it depends on what happens in the beginning of this series, we have no idea who we’ll see starting games 3 and 4.  For as strong as the staring rotation looked a month ago, that is alarming.

Lee and Hamels appear to be non-questions in comparison to the rest of the rotation, but that’s only true if the “right” Lee and Hamels show up.  The Lee that finished the season was a polar opposite of the Lee that came over at the trade deadline, with his era jumping nearly six full runs from the first five starts to next seven.  And Cole has been up and down all year.  He’s been up more than down lately, but you still don’t know.

That pretty much does it for the pitching, but pitching is not alone as a question mark.  The offense has been in a pretty big slump for most of September, and some key guys have been in horrendous slumps (Chase Utley and Shane Victorino to name a couple).  Now, the nature of this offense is to be streaky.  Anyone who’s watched the Phillies the past three or four years knows this.  And right now it’s streaking bad.  Now, there is a decent chance the lack of production from the big bats in the lineup was due to fatigue at the end of a long season - Manuel did a good job of resting those guys up the final five games of the year - but, again, you just don’t know.

So what can we count on against the Rockies?  Defense.  Experience.  Home crowds.  Unfortunately, I’m not sure what those count for or what else we can count on.  Now, all of this is not meant to be doom and gloom.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the struggles of September were simply a natural human reaction to being in first for so long.  I wouldn’t be surprised if, come Wednesday, the bats wake up, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels pitch like they’re capable of, and the Phillies advance easily.  However, I also wouldn’t be that surprised if the slump from September continues, and the red-hot Rockies come in here and make quick work of the Phils (sounds eerily familiar).

The Phillies are a good team.  A very good team - they’re probably more talented than last year’s championship edition.  But there are simply too many question marks to be confident in a repeat.  Could it happen.  Absolutely.  Even with all these questions, the Phillies managed to win a third consecutive division title, and finish within one game of the best record in the league.  And every time they’ve faced a “must-win” situation, they have come through.  But only time will tell whether this season will end in disappointment or jubilation.  But, regardless, it’s been a fun ride, and will continue to be for as long as the Phillies are playing.  Everyone should remember that.

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